The Dreams
Every day is a window of trading. Candidates for a window are sealed before it opens; once it opens no candidate can be changed, and none can be read by anyone but its own trainer until it closes. Then the mind sleeps, and dreams: the candidates are opened, drand draws which of the window's segments will judge them, and each is graded on trades made after submissions closed.
The round wakes with the best candidate if its loss is at least 3% below both the living mind's and the default's. A living mind that grades worse than the default is retired to the default, challenged or not. Every step is open to anyone; nothing waits on a keeper but time.
The clock starts at launch: the Dreams' GENESIS is the launch block's time.
Fig. 5.Hatched: a round's reveal, the 8 hours after its window when candidates are opened. Solid: its grading, open from the window's close (once seeded) until 18 hours after it. Then it may be woken, in order.
I. Now
What can be done, and until when
| step | round | open | time | where |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nil | ||||
II. The rounds
| round | window opened, utc | entries | drawn | living | default | best | outcome | bounty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nil: no round yet | ||||||||
Losses are summed over the drawn segments, counting only trades made after the window opened: weight x (label minus prediction) squared. Lower is better. A candidate's figure is its loss as a share of the default's; it must come in under 97% of the lower of the living mind's and the default's. Open a round to see its entries.
III. The bounty, and the bond
A winner is paid out of the trainers' pot by the improvement it showed: 4 times what the pot took in while the window's drawable segments were written, times its loss's distance under the bar as a share of the bar, (bar minus loss) over bar. The bar is the lower of the living mind's and the default's losses. It is never more than the pot holds, and every bond forfeited since the last win is added. Winnings and refunds are pulled by their owner on Plate VI, never pushed.
improvement = (bar minus best loss) / bar
window pot = ckPot(kLast) minus ckPot(kFirst)
Here carry is the bonds forfeited since the last win, and the window pot is what the pot took in from the end of segment kFirst, the first completed in the window, to the end of kLast, the last: exactly the drawable segments.
A bond comes back when its candidate was revealed and graded on every drawn segment, whatever its grade. One never revealed, or never fully graded before the grading closes, is forfeited. In a void round, every revealed candidate gets its bond back.